Thinking Three Moves Ahead: How Onitama Teaches us Second (and Third) Order Thinking

Have you ever taken steps to solve an immediate problem only to have that solution cause more problems down the line? Second order thinking means considering the consequences of consequences - not just what happens after an action, but what happens because of that next step too.

Early on in my career, I witnessed a phenomenon with my newly hired warehouse labor. More times than I could count, I would watch a worker who needed to move a pallet that was pinned in by another make the same mistake over and over. They would first move the obstacle in their immediate way but leave it directly in the path they would need to travel in the immediate future. This would then cause additional shuffling around and waste movement and time.

Though I didn’t know the name of it at the time, what my staff were exhibiting was the lack of second order thinking, or more colloquially, thinking three moves ahead. There was an immediate problem, “something is in my way” and an easy immediate solution, “move that object anywhere but here” but no consideration was given to what happens next. Some workers eventually recognized this pattern and learned to be more thoughtful in the steps they took to solve the problem in the future, but there were plenty in whom it never clicked. While promotions depended on many factors, those who learned to think further ahead were often the ones who rose fastest. As a general rule, the higher up you look in a company hierarchy, the better people are at this kind of thinking and the more steps ahead they think. 

What is Second-Order Thinking?

Second, Third, or N^th order thinking is a fundamental skill necessary to both strategy and execution. It is what allows us to think through our plan of action, step by step, while considering the consequences of each of those steps. During execution of the plan, it helps us make better decisions when life inevitably throws us a curveball and we need to start improvising.

There are plenty of nuances and topics we could discuss when looking at second order thinking but we will focus on two key aspects: Causal awareness and time horizon expansion.

Causal Awareness: Predicting Consequences

Causal awareness is the ability to anticipate cause-and-effect based on past and present behavior. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Life is rarely so black and white that there is just one possible effect for every action we might take, however there is often a most likely scenario that we can be confident could happen. To better understand causal awareness, we should look both backward into the past and forward into the future. Looking back and reflecting on a situation, ask yourself:

 “Why did that happen the way it did?”

 “Why was that the most likely result of the action I took”

When looking forward when making a plan of action, ask yourself:

“If I take this action, what is the most likely result?”

For example, if a business lowers its prices, what are the possible effects? It is very helpful to consider not only the most likely consequences, but also the worst case scenario so you aren’t caught unaware. If they were to lower prices, the company will likely gain more customers but their margin will go down, and worst case, this might trigger a price war with their largest competitor.

Time Horizon Expansion: Seeing the Next Few Turns

Time horizon expansion is the mental habit of seeing further into the future when making decisions and is a natural extension of causal awareness. You can think of it as the number of steps you can think ahead. Like everything else, this is a skill that can be learned and practiced to improve upon. For some, it comes naturally while others struggle with even a few steps beyond the current choice of action. A great example of this skill in action is the trope of two chess grandmasters staring at a game board. One makes a move and triumphantly declares “Checkmate in 37!” His opponent looks at the board, thinks for a moment, then solemnly concedes defeat. In this example, both players have mastered the game as well as second order thinking. They can see the optimal moves that each player will take given the board state and both come to the conclusion that in 37 turns from now, there will be a clear winner and loser. While it takes many years and superhuman dedication to reach that level, for the rest of us, it is enough to learn the basics and achieve meaningful results in our everyday lives.

Onitama: Learning to think three moves ahead

Chess might be the quintessential example of thinking multiple moves ahead, but it isn’t the best for learning the basics. This is because there are just too many variables to learn in the beginning. That’s where Onitama comes in. Onitama, known affectionately as Kung-Fu chess in some circles, pits two martial arts masters and their students against each other in a contest to prove which dojo is greatest. Unlike chess, which has dozens of piece combinations and deep theory, Onitama offers a cleaner, more beginner-friendly sandbox for practicing forward-thinking.

Example board state

The game is played on a 5x5 grid, like a smaller chess board, with each player’s master in the center square of the back row flanked by their four students. The goal of the game is to either capture your opponent’s master or land your own master in their master’s starting square. Each turn, players may move one of their pawns in a manner dictated by one of five martial arts cards that determine what squares a piece can move into. There’s a catch however and that catch is what we care about for learning second order thinking.

On any given turn, players may only use one of two cards available to them. A third card is placed off to the side, while your opponent has the last two to select from on their turn. When you make a move, you replace the unclaimed card with the card you just played and the cycle repeats from there. Your opponent will choose one of their cards and then gain the card you just played for availability on their next turn, so on and so forth. This trading of cards repeats until one player is the victor.

Training Your Mind with Mini Predictions

Now let’s take a look at the game, through the lens of second order thinking.

First order thinking: You can choose one of your two cards to play.

Second order thinking: If you choose card A, your opponent is likely to choose card B on their turn in response.

Third order thinking: If you choose card A, your opponent is likely to choose card B, and then in response, you will choose card C which you will gain at the end of this turn.

As you can see, it is possible to follow this logical structure any number of moves into the future. Take a look at the chart below to see an example of a simple decision tree based on this logic:

Decision tree for first four turns of the game

Even after just three turns, there are 16 possible choices for what card your opponent could play on turn four. As a side note, after you select a card, you must then choose which piece to move, making the above chart orders of magnitude more complicated in reality. The rate at which this type of analysis and planning complicates makes it clear why this skill is incredibly difficult to master. However, dedicating the time and effort to master the basics will pay off in spades down the line.

Next Steps: How to Practice

To get started, before each move you make, take a mental prediction about what response your opponent will make. Once they take their turn, check back on your prediction; did they do what you expected them to do? If yes, great! Keep it up. If no, ask yourself a few follow up questions:

• Did they make a better move than you anticipated?

• Did you miss something that they saw?

• Did they make a worse move?

• What would you do differently next time to make a more accurate prediction?

By going through this exercise, you will begin to build this mental muscle. Take the process outlined here and apply it not only to other games you play, but see where you can make predictions at work. Over time, this process becomes second nature and you will go through the steps subconsciously.

Whether you’re on a game board or in a boardroom, second-order thinking is what separates the reactive from the strategic. Onitama provides a perfect playground to practice this skill in a low-stakes, high-feedback environment, helping you train your brain to think beyond the obvious, anticipate what’s next, and make decisions with long-term consequences in mind.

By asking, “What happens after this?” and “Then what?”, you’ll start to see patterns where others see noise. And over time, whether you're managing warehouse logistics, negotiating a deal, or plotting your next move in life or work, you won’t just be reacting, you’ll be thinking three moves ahead.

Note: Onitama is available for play online on Board Game Arena - https://boardgamearena.com/gamepanel?game=onitama